MLB lockout threat puts the billion-dollar baseball card business in check
With MLB's labor deal set to expire on December 1, the baseball card industry faces a crossroads between frozen prices for stars and heavy losses for manufacturers and shops.
The specter of a labor fight is hovering over Major League Baseball again as the Collective Bargaining Agreement nears its expiration on December 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. With owners and players still far apart, the looming possibility of a lockout threatens not only to halt the baseball calendar but also to hit a commercial giant enjoying a historic boom: the collectible card market.
The stars are safe
Unlike the 1994 collapse, industry experts expect a shutdown not to sink prices for established superstars such as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge or Mike Trout. With no action on the field, the risk of injuries or batting slumps disappears for a while, creating a kind of pause or artificial stability for proven cards.
No games means no injuries or slumps: star cards go on pause.
Who loses
The real financial blow, however, will land on the supply chain. Manufacturers, distributors and shops that rely on mass sales of sealed boxes, live online openings (breaks) and on-demand products will take heavy losses as fans' day-to-day excitement fades.
Prospect and rookie cards inflated by speculation will also see their prices stall without the spotlight of games. The standstill could push investors toward Hall of Fame legends or move their money into basketball, football and even entertainment franchises such as Pokémon or Star Wars.
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